3:30 p.m. Pacific Time, Wednesday, 12 August 2015
Election 2016 Predictions, Possible Scenario
The 2016 Republican National Convention, in which delegates of the United States Republican Party will choose the party’s nominees for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States in the 2016 national election will be held July 18–21, 2016. The Convention is to be held at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio.
- I predict the GOP will not select Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee.
- I predict Donald Trump will go Independent (unaffiliated) or otherwise “Third Party” by July 21, if not much sooner.
What are the “Third Party” options? There are two parties that have the means to get on the ballots of all 50 states.
- Libertarian Party
- Green Party
How about other political parties? Few possibilities.
- Constitution Party
- Modern Whig Party
- Reform Party
Donald Trump has enough money to create his own Independent political party – perhaps The Trump Party, and covering the cost to get it on the ballots of all 50 states.
That stated, then the question is: Who of the present GOP candidates might become the Republican nominee? I rank the top three possibilities in this order.
- Fiorina – could end up being the Vice President nominee.
Next level of possibilities.
- Carson – could end up being the Vice President nominee.
I predict the following candidates will drop out of the race before July 2016 in this order.
I predict Cruz and Paul will go Independent about the same time Trump does!
- Ted Cruz will try to get the Tea Party on ballots in all 50 states and run as its nominee.
- Rand Paul will try to become the Libertarian nominee.
Meantime, the 2016 Democratic National Convention is the gathering at which delegates of the United States Democratic Party will choose the party’s nominees for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States in the 2016 national election. It will be held July 25–28, 2016, at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, with some events at the Pennsylvania Convention Center.
My predictions for the Democratic Party candidates.
- Hillary Clinton will be blown out of the race by crime and controversy.
- Bernie Sanders, who is an Independent, is the longest-serving independent in U.S. congressional history. A self-described democratic socialist, he favors policies similar to those of social democratic parties in Europe, particularly those of Scandinavia. He caucuses with the Democratic Party and has been the ranking minority member on the Senate Budget Committee since January 2015. I predict he will not be the Democratic Party nominee, and will complete his run as an Independent.
- Lincoln Chafee , considering his history, could also go Independent if not the nominee.
- Jim Webb will not drop out of the race, and I predict he will not be the nominee for President, but could become the nominee for Vice President.
- Martin O’Malley is my prediction for who the Democratic Party nominee will be for President.
A possible 2016 presidential ballot in all 50 states could end up looking like this.
- Martin O’Malley – Democratic Party
- Marco Rubio – Republican Nominee
- Donald Trump – Independent
- Bernie Sanders – Independent
- Rand Paul – Libertarian
- Ted Cruz – Tea Party
- Jill Stein – Green Party
There has been concern that Trump going Independent would cause the Republican Party nominee to lose votes to the Democratic Party nominee, resulting in the Democratic Party nominee winning the election. However, I believe the Democratic Party will face the same crisis of losing a major candidate to becoming Independent or running as a “Third Party” candidate. If so, then that could balance out the election results. Even so, the Democratic Party candidate could still win. Against that is the history of the political pendulum swinging between Democrats and Republicans for 4 to 8 years each. If that pattern in history continues, then the Republican candidate will win Election 2016. Even so, I predict the count will be so nearly a tie that the final count and winner will not be known by the end of the night of the election – maybe not the following morning – but by 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time the following day. Not just nearly a tie between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, but a 3-way or 4-way tie with one or two of the other candidates – of which Trump could be one of those two. The popular vote could go to one, while one of the others wins by electoral votes! It’s happened before – it can happen again.
None of this represents what I want. I is simply one of the possibilities – one of the scenarios – I believe could happen in November 2016.
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