4:00 p.m. Pacific Time, Tuesday, 4 August 2015
History of Democratic vs. Republican Presidential Terms Political Parties Pendulum
For a number of TERMS IN OFFICE the political parties pendulum swings left and right like the pendulum on an old grandfather clock. It usually only swings left for so long before it inevitably swings right. It is the gravity of our basic two-party system between Liberal Democrats on the political left and Conservative Republicans on the political right.
There has not bee a third party victory since the Whig Party – Millard Fillmore, 13th President, ending 4 March 1953.
The Twenty-second Amendment (Amendment XXII) of the United States Constitution set a term limit for election and overall time of service to the office of President of the United States to two terms. Congress passed the amendment on 21 March 1947. It was ratified by the requisite number of the forty-eight states on 27 February 1951. It does not limit how many terms in a row a political party can hold the office. Political gravity and the pendulum appears to solve that problem.
It is the “majority” of voters, or “swing state” voters, who swing from one of the two major political parties to the other and back again, neither being fully satisfying. It is as if there is hope that one will eventually prevail, without there ever again being another third choice. Odds are very low even for another party that gets on the ballots of all 50 states. The Modern Whig Party is the revival of the old Whig Party, and presently has no chance of getting on ballots of all 50 states. Likewise the Constitution Party, Reform party, and others. Presently, only two other political parties are strong enough to get on the ballots of all 50 states – the Green Party and the Libertarian Party.
Party and Terms Office Held by that Party
Democratic – 2 – 1852, 1856
Republican – 1 – 1860
Democratic – 1 – 1864
Republican – 4 – 1868, 1872, 1876, 1880
Democratic – 1 – 1884
Republican – 1 – 1888
Democratic – 1 – 1892
Republican – 4 – 1896, 1900, 1904, 1908
Democratic – 2 – 1912, 1916
Republican – 3 – 1920, 1924, 1928
Democratic – 5 – 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948
Republican – 2 – 1952, 1956
Democratic – 2 – 1960, 1964
Republican – 2 – 1968, 1972
Democratic – 1 – 1976
Republican – 3 – 1980, 1984, 1988
Democratic – 2 – 1992, 1996
Republican – 2 – 2000, 2004
Democratic – 2 – 2008, 2012
Democratic = 19 terms held office since departure of Whig Party
Republican = 22 terms held office since departure of Whig Party
If the history pattern continues, then the present odds favor the pendulum swinging back to the political right for the Republicans to hold the office for 1 to 2 terms. This means the Republican candidate – whoever it is, is likely to beat the Democratic candidate – whoever it is.
Some polls indicate Americans have had enough of the two major political parties, and would support a reasonable third choice. Even so, none have the strength, as is, to win in November 2016. However, if one were to have any chance at all, then it would be for Donald trump to run as an Independent instead of a Republican. The concern is that if he were to do that, then he would take more votes from the Republican candidate than from the Democratic candidate – resulting in the Democratic candidate winning. Even so, some polls indicate Americans have had enough of government as usual – politics as usual – of either major political party. Business as usual is not acceptable, and to put an end to it might require someone who knows more about business than politics, perhaps to run the United States government more like a business than like a parasite sucking the life-blood out of American taxpayers. Does it come down to the particular candidate or the political party? In this election, it could be the candidate who makes the needed difference, rather then the political party.
Now evening of this date of Tuesday 4 August 2015, FOX news has announced the poll results for the 2 debates – the primetime debate for the Top 10 Republican candidates and the earlier debate scheduled for the other 7 Republican candidates…
Primetime Debate – at 8:50 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday 6 August 2015. It will run until 11:00 p.m. on FOX News:
Earlier Debate same date on FOX News – 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time for 1 hour:
I consider Trump to be the “Wild Card” of the Top 10. If Trump does not maintain the lead, then who takes over? It likely comes down to Bush or Walker, although I believe Christie or Kasich could rise in the polls after the debate.
Of those presently on the bottom 7, I favor Graham and Jindal, based on how well they performed during the New Hampshire forum Monday 3 August 2015 on C-Span.
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